The Moment We No Longer Talk Inflation

The market will have already rallied by the time inflation is tamed because of the market’s forward-looking nature. On the minds of investors will be a possible recession or the next big thing. There’s always something on the horizon. 

In 2022, a year when inflation was uncomfortably high and stayed there, we had notable rallies on the smallest of signals. Those signals were a hint of a slowdown of rate hikes, news being less bad than expected, or the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, simply saying “neutral”. 

If the current year end rally is a bear market rally, then an assessment on what can possibly cause new lows. 

The other elephant in the room is the increasing likelihood of a recession (yes, there are two elephants in the room). The way the country is hiring and spending now, there is no sign of one. However, interest rate hikes in 2022 have a lag of about 12-18 months. 

Imagine the brakes in your car don’t engage until two miles after applying them. If you’re on a road you’re unfamiliar with, you don’t know if the road stays straight, curves, declines, or climbs. Your braking might be needed but your braking might slow you down when you need speed to climb.

The extent this bear market has already priced in a recession is unknown. I would think the reaction to inflation and rate hikes takes most of the credit so far. 

If there are 100% odds of a recession, the question would be how bad will it be. Remember the big recession of the early 90s? No, we’re trained to live through steep and life altering recessions like 2001 and 2009.  

The IMF is predicting the Euro area is closer to recession than any other region. Outside of that, there is no sign of impending recession. This is not a prediction, just stating the data.

We have two reputable economic forecasters in the Conference Board and the IMF with opposing views. Surprise! We can’t predict the future. 

Let’s say there’s a recession but Russia leaves Ukraine. If inflation goes down and the housing market normalizes. Lots of mixed possibilities where no one can predict reactions to.

DISCLOSURES: 

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor.

Although bonds generally present less short-term risk and volatility risk than stocks, bonds contain interest rate risks; the risk of issuer default; issuer credit risk; liquidity risk; and inflation risk.

The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward‐looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur.

All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.

The information contained above is for illustrative purposes only.

No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment.
All investments include a risk of loss that clients should be prepared to bear. The principal risks of CWA strategies are disclosed in the publicly available Form ADV Part 2A.

Hao B. Dang, CFA, AIF®

Hao B. Dang is a certified financial advisor and investment strategies with Consilio Wealth Advisors. With a passion for investment analytics, Hao oversees investment portfolios for individuals and institutions. Prior to joining Consilio Wealth Advisors, he managed over $4 billion for 80+ advisors at a large independent advisory firm.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/hao-dangcwa/
Previous
Previous

Top 4 Ways to Improve your Retirement Score

Next
Next

Bear Market Rally or Bottom?